Malaria Outbreaks in Africa Could Worsen with Climate Change
Climate change likely to supercharge malaria spread across Africa by 2100. Rising temperatures and rapid urban growth may double extreme malaria risk days. Can we stop it?
A new scientific study has issued a warning: malaria outbreaks in Africa are likely to become more common and more severe in the coming decades because of global warming and rapid population growth.
Malaria, a deadly disease spread by mosquitoes, already affects millions across Africa. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there were an estimated 263 million cases and 597,000 malaria deaths worldwide in 2023. But Africa accounted for 94% of the cases and 95% of the deaths.
New research, authored by scientists Christian Franzke and Ruchi Singh Parihar and published in GeoHealth, shows that the situation could get much worse if the world continues on its current path.
The researchers used advanced computer models to simulate what could happen to malaria in Africa between now and the year 2100. They looked at how climate change–especially higher temperatures–and growing populations could affect mosquito behavior and infection rates.
In many parts of Africa, including Central, East, and West Africa, malaria infections are expected to rise sharply starting from the 2030s. In fact, the number of days with extremely high infection risks–when people are exposed to many infectious mosquito bites–could almost double by the end of the century compared to the past.
That means the chance of major malaria outbreaks will be much higher than ever before.
What makes it worse?
Hotter temperatures help mosquitoes live longer and bite more often, and they also help the malaria parasite grow faster inside the mosquito. At the same time, heavy rains can create more standing water, which mosquitoes use for breeding.
The researchers point out that while rainfall is important, temperature plays a much bigger role in how quickly malaria spreads.
They also noted that in some places, like Nigeria, the number of mosquitoes might go up, but the number of actual infections could go down slightly. This is because of population pressure–when many people live in one house, mosquitoes may not be able to bite everyone.
What do other studies say?
Temperature and rainfall are the two main climate factors that influence the spread of malaria.
For instance, in a 2022 paper published in Nature, researchers used data collected from 1901 to 2015 across 43 African countries to understand the malaria-climate relationship. In general, malaria trends closely followed changes in temperature and rainfall. They found that between 1901 and 1980, malaria was positively linked with both climate factors.
However, after 1981, the relationship between malaria and rainfall changed, becoming weaker or even negative. This could have been due to changes in rainfall intensity or improvements in public health efforts.
A study conducted in India, published last year, showed that rising temperatures over the past decade are helping malaria spread more easily. Researchers recorded temperatures from different types of homes and found that both overall heat and daily temperature swings have increased, especially in buildings with asbestos roofs. These hotter conditions speed up the development of the malaria parasite inside mosquitoes, meaning it takes fewer days for the mosquito to become infectious.
A separate study found that 75.9 million additional people could face year-round (endemic) malaria risk, mainly in Eastern Africa. Even in regions where the malaria season becomes shorter, like West Africa, around 51.3 million more people may still be exposed by 2050.
Christian Franzke and Ruchi Singh Parihar’s study also shows that the problem isn’t just caused by a warming climate. More people living close together–especially in crowded cities–will also make it easier for mosquitoes to spread the disease.
The challenges could be compounded by U.S. funding cuts if things don’t change in the medium and long term. A study in The Lancet, for instance, predicts that the U.S. government’s President’s Malaria Initiative would have prevented about 13.6 million malaria cases and 104,000 deaths in 2025 alone. This means the program could stop about 1 in every 9 malaria illnesses and more than 1 in every 3 malaria deaths in the 27 African countries where it operates.
Is there hope?
Christian Franzke and Ruchi Singh Parihar say yes–but only if action is taken quickly.
They urge governments and health planners in Africa to focus their malaria control efforts in regions that are likely to be hit the hardest in the next 10 to 30 years. This includes countries in Central and Eastern Africa and some parts of Madagascar. Tools like mosquito nets, better housing, and new malaria vaccines could make a big difference, they said.
VISUAL OF THE WEEK
Despite expansion of wheat growing in East Africa, most countries in the region still depend on imports. Countries like Uganda and Rwanda import more than 100% of their consumption needs. Study mentioned in Research highlights below
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest maternal mortality rate in the world, estimated in 2020 to be 545 maternal deaths per 100 000 live births, more than 136 times higher than that of the lowest region. In Sierra Leone, adolescent girls (aged 10–19 years) account for up to 40% of all maternal deaths, nearly all of which are preventable. Efforts to prevent adolescent pregnancies have had limited success, and comprehensive approaches to optimising child and adolescent health are badly needed.” Ellen Hodnett, The Lancet
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS
Why Nigerians hunt pangolins: The Pangolin hunting in southeast Nigeria is driven mainly by local demand for their meat, not the international scale trade. Most pangolins are caught incidentally during general hunting, with 98% destined for local consumption or sale due to the meat's high palatability. Roughly 70% of scales are discarded, and less than 30% are sold, as meat fetches three to four times more locally. This indicates that efforts to conserve pangolins should prioritize local food security and community-based interventions rather than focusing solely on stopping the international scale trade. [Reference, Nature Ecology and Evolution]
What delays breast cancer diagnosis in Africa: Breast cancer mortality rates are highest in Africa due to significant delays in diagnosis. The main reason for these delays is a widespread lack of awareness about breast cancer symptoms among women. Other key factors include cultural beliefs, like attributing cancer to spiritual causes, and fear or stigma associated with the disease. Financial difficulties and a strong reliance on traditional healers also prevent women from seeking timely medical attention. Additionally, family responsibilities and limited access to formal healthcare contribute to the problem. To improve early detection, solutions should involve targeted education, integrating awareness into healthcare, engaging religious leaders, and improving access to care and financial support. [Reference, International Journal of Cancer]
Early human adaptability led to global spread: a study examining ancient human settlements in Africa found that our ancestors began adapting to many different environments–like deserts, forests, and savannahs–around 70,000 years ago. This growing ability to live in diverse and challenging habitats made them more resilient and flexible. By 50,000 years ago, this ecological adaptability helped humans move out of Africa and successfully settle across the globe. Earlier migrations had failed, likely because those groups weren't yet as adaptable. The researchers used climate models and archaeological data to track this change over 120,000 years. The findings show that humans’ unique ability to thrive in various conditions was developed in Africa, laying the foundation for our species’ global success. [Reference, Nature]
East Africa’s wheat struggles: more land, not more yield: a study of wheat farming in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania from 1993 to 2023 found that wheat production is rising, but mostly because of land expansion–not better yields. Ethiopia leads in wheat production, showing growth in both land use and productivity, while Kenya and Tanzania face declining yields. Uganda has the most stable wheat production, but like Rwanda, it still depends heavily on imports. In total, 73% of recent production growth came from using more land. The study warns this strategy is unsustainable and urges East African countries to invest in modern farming tools, irrigation, and climate-smart seeds to boost productivity, reduce imports, and achieve food security. [Reference, Journal of Sustainable Agriculture and Environment]
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